đ âYou Wanna Betâ Is A Great Way To Make Decisions
Make hard things easier, use Michael Scottâs timeless wisdom, & more
This is Bread Crumbs. The newsletter that makes Sunday reading so refreshing youâll think youâre in a Sandals commercial.
Todayâs estimated read time: 4 minutes & 55 seconds.
This is written by your boi, Paul.
One Tiny Habit
Under 5 minutes a day can change your life.
Waking up is hard! Like we talked about in a previous newsletter, the morning mattress effect is real. The sheets feel softer & the comforter is cozier. Luckily, moving the alarm clock a short walk from the bed is a powerful hack for avoiding the snooze button.
But what happens after we get up? Usually, I beeline it straight to the shower, turn the knob to the perfect temperature, and hop in. But when I get out 10 minutes later, Iâm more tired than when I started. The warm water lulls me back to sleep!
Cold Water: âhold my beerâ
To combat my monkey mind from convincing me to jump back into bed, I add a little cold water to my shower game.
Right before I get out, I do 15-30 seconds of cold water.
Iâm no David Goggins and Iâm not trying to be. Iâm just asking myself (and you) for 15-30 seconds of confidence. Thereâs two big reasons why:
Cold water releases adrenaline so youâll be locked & loaded to win the day.
You have already knocked out one difficult task within the first 30 minutes of the day.
That creates momentum to knock out the next difficult task. If you can handle freezing cold water, you can certainly handle that difficult employee, boss, or coworker.
At times, I donât switch it to cold. And thatâs okay. When I do, I feel proud of myself. But itâs more than that. When you do it on a consistent basis, you turn yourself into a person who regularly seeks discomfort and overcomes difficult things. Your life slowly changes:
Difficult coworkers become easier to handle.
Tough conversations become more approachable.
And lifeâs inevitable hardships become easier to endure.
Every cold shower you take is a vote to become the type of person you wish to become. No single instance will transform your beliefs, but as the votes build up, so does the evidence of your new identity.
One Insightful Question
Stop unconsciously floating through life & start thinking about things that really matter.
Imagine you are talking to a friend whoâs struggling to consistently train for a marathon. You reassure her âYouâre going to crush your time goal! The weather has been crappy and everyone goes through lulls while training.â
Then another friend comes over and says âI bet you $1,000 she doesnât hit her goalâ.
Suddenly, you lose confidence. You remember that your friend hasnât gone on her long Saturday runs because sheâs been too hungover. You realize the lack of training might not be tied to the weather. Now you donât even believe what you just said.
Were you lying when you were supporting your friend? No. Rather, your thinking was clouded & you couldnât be truly honest. Why? There were no repercussions for being wrong.
With $1,000 on the line, your brain switched from âbe a good friendâ to âwin the betâ. To win, you needed to find the truth. You left the world of claims and entered the world of bets.
There are tons of times when our thinking is clouded and we arenât really honest with ourselves. You may find yourself sayingâŠ
âIâm never going to figure this problem out!â
âThereâs no way I can hit that deadline.â
âI canât lose 10 pounds.â
In those moments, take a 10-second pause and create a wager. If you had to bet $1,000, would you bet it all that you will never figure the problem out? Or are you just frustrated and overwhelmed at this moment?
Oftentimes, we believe our initial feelings and admit defeat. We cut off any chance of success because our thinking is clouded. By using a wager, we can clear our minds & seek the truth. The truth may mean that you only have a 25% chance. But, thatâs a million times better than 0%.
RememberâŠ
One Guiding Principle
Principles can guide you to a great life.
When was the last time you were deceived by someone?
âThis stock is definitely going upâ
âThe company culture is greatâ
âI wonât do it againâ
In the moment, all of these statements seemed valid. And so you believed them. But when you look back, you canât believe that you were so gullible! You are filled with regret and feel stupid. Thereâs two reasons you feel this way:
You are feeling hindsight bias. Itâs easy to criticize past behavior when you have the final results.
The person who said it misled you. They said one thing & did another.
Itâs hard to control hindsight bias. But, you can pick up on when someone might mislead you. To sniff out deception before it is too late, use this simple principle from Nassim Taleb:
Watch what they do, not what they say.
For example, the person said:
âThis stock is definitely going upâ BUT they only invested 1% of their cash into it
âThe company culture is greatâ BUT they have high employee turnover
âI wonât do it againâ BUT they said the same thing last week
By looking at their actions, itâs a lot harder to be tricked. If someoneâs actions donât line up with their words, they are less believable. So, I am less likely to trust and work with them in the future. I call this their Believability Factor (BF). The more their actions align with their words, the higher their BF.
Accounting for someoneâs BF is especially helpful when dealing with authority figures. Watching actions helps cut through the bullshit & see their true intentions. As a result, I can make a more conscious decision for myself.
As my 1st-grade teacher, Ms. Sullivan always said, âactions always speak louder than words.â
5 Great Resources
A curated list of content to help you explore your curiosity.
Bad news: you arenât special. Good news: thatâs the key to happiness. Read why here.
Monotonous consistency is amazing. Check out this article to learn why.
Learn how to sniff out bad actors in the investing business.
Feeling down? Hereâs your weekly dose of optimism.
Why you should define your fears instead of your goals
Meme of the Week
See yâall next Sunday. Treat yourself to some pasta!
- Paul & Luke
Canât get enough & want to read more? Check out our previous newsletters!